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全球碳中和之路(英文版):The Road to Global Carbon Neutrality
本报告是《全球碳中和之路》的英文版。
本报告聚焦全球碳中和之路研究,从战略全局认识和把握全球碳中和目标,结合自身在全球能源转型、清洁发展、电力规划、气候环境领域的研究成果,对全球碳达峰碳中和问题的重大意义、形势任务、思路目标、重点举措、综合路径、行业判断、区域特征等进行了深入研究,编制形成《全球碳中和之路》。 本报告共分为18章。第1章介绍全球气候变化与碳中和的形势与挑战。第2章提出全球碳中和的必由之路,即以全球能源互联网为基础平台,包括五大部门、六大洲、六大关键技术、市场与基础设施支撑的全球碳中和之路综合方案。第3章介绍全社会净零路径与全球能源互联网方案特征。第4~8章,分别对能源行业净零路线图、工业行业净零路线图、交通领域净零路线图、建筑及生活领域净零路线图和农业及土地利用增汇路线图进行了全面详细的介绍。第9~14章分别介绍亚洲、欧洲、非洲、北美洲、中南美洲、大洋洲碳中和实现路径,从发展现状、减排路径、能源转型、清洁能源、配置网络等多个维度,结合各洲发展实际,系统论述了各洲的碳中和路径。第15章介绍清洁替代、电能替代、能源互联、能源存储、氢能与电制、碳捕集封存与利用等六大零碳负碳关键技术。第16章介绍建立全球电碳市场的市场保障机制。第17章介绍促进三网融合发展的基础实施保障机制。第18章介绍综合效益与政策机制。
本报告分析气候变化的紧迫形势和深远影响,全面介绍全球能源互联网方案,包括能源生产、能源消费、能源互联、工业零碳、交通零碳、建筑及居民零碳、农林业增汇等多个维度的行动路线图,系统回答全球如何实现碳中和。报告兼顾科普性、通识性以及专业性,满足不同读者的信息获取需求。
全球能源互联网发展合作组织(简称合作组织),是由致力于推动世界能源可持续发展的相关企业、组织、机构和个人等自愿组成的国际组织。注册地设在北京。合作组织的宗旨是推动构建全球能源互联网,以清洁和绿色方式满足全球电力需求,推动实现联合国“人人享有可持续能源”和应对气候变化目标,服务人类社会可持续发展。合作组织将积极推广全球能源互联网理念,组织制定全球能源互联网发展规划,建立技术标准体系,开展联合技术创新、重大问题研究和国际交流合作,推动工程项目实施,提供咨询服务,引领全球能源互联网发展。
1 Climate Change and Carbon Neutrality?001
1.1 Global Climate Change Dynamics?002 1.1.1 Causes of Climate Change?002 1.1.2 Impacts of Climate Change?008 1.1.3 Climate and Environmental Crisis?014 1.2 Effectiveness of Global Actions?016 1.2.1 Global Climate Governance Actions?017 1.2.2 Progress of National Mitigation?021 1.2.3 Efforts of International Institutions?024 1.3 Significance of Carbon Neutrality?026 1.3.1 Resolving the Climate and Environment Crisis?026 1.3.2 Advancing High-quality Economic Development?027 1.3.3 Realizing Global Sustainable Development?028 1.3.4 Building a Community of Shared Future for Mankind?028 1.4 Challenges for Carbon Neutrality?029 1.4.1 Large Gap to Reach the Mitigation Target?029 1.4.2 Strong Path-dependence on the Traditional Development Model?031 1.4.3 Lack of Systematic Schemes?032 1.4.4 Multifacet Challenges in Global Cooperation?033 1.5 Summary?035 2 The Essential Path for Global Carbon Neutrality?037 2.1 Mitigation Mechanism?038 2.1.1 Impact Factors?040 2.1.2 Directions of Carbon Reduction?041 2.2 GEI Theory?043 2.2.1 Development Idea?044 2.2.2 Development Direction?046 2.2.3 System Components?050 2.2.4 Well-equipped Conditions?052 2.3 Development Trends?054 2.3.1 Clean Development Trends?055 2.3.2 Energy Interconnection Trends?057 2.3.3 Pivotal Roles of UHV?058 2.4 Comprehensive Solution?061 2.5 Summary?062 3 GEI Carbon Neutrality Pathway?063 3.1 Overall Model Approach?064 3.1.1 Research Methodology?064 3.1.2 Analysis Model?065 3.2 Global Development Projection?070 3.2.1 Economy and Industry?071 3.2.2 Population and Society?076 3.2.3 Energy and Emissions?079 3.3 Global Pathway towards Net Zero Emissions?084 3.3.1 Overall Pathway towards Net Zero Emissions?084 3.3.2 Pathway towards Net Zero Emissions by Sector?086 3.4 Energy Transition Pattern?090 3.4.1 Clean and Zero-carbon Energy Supply?090 3.4.2 Electric-centric Energy Consumption?094 3.4.3 Wide-area Interconnection and Allocation of Energy?098 3.4.4 Intelligent and Flexible Operation of Energy?100 3.5 Comprehensive Comparison?105 3.5.1 Core Features?106 3.5.2 Technical Advantages?108 3.5.3 Economic Advantages?110 3.5.4 Effectiveness of Emission Reduction?112 3.5.5 Values of Energy Interconnection?115 3.6 Summary?119 _x000c_ 4 Net Zero Emissions Roadmap for Energy Sector?121 4.1 Phase-out of Fossil Fuels?122 4.1.1 Coal?122 4.1.2 Oil?136 4.1.3 Natural Gas?145 4.2 Development of Clean Energy?154 4.2.1 Solar Energy?154 4.2.2 Wind Energy?160 4.2.3 Hydropower?165 4.2.4 Nuclear Power?170 4.2.5 Biomass Energy?171 4.3 Global Energy Allocation?174 4.3.1 Backbone Power Grid Network?174 4.3.2 Green Hydrogen Allocation System?184 4.4 Summary?192 5 Net Zero Emissions Roadmap for Industries?195 5.1 Iron and Steel Industry?196 5.1.1 Status Quo and Trend?196 5.1.2 Target and Pathway of Decarbonization?200 5.1.3 Direction and Priorities of Decarbonization?202 5.2 Chemical Industry?212 5.2.1 Status Quo and Trend?212 5.2.2 Target and Pathway of Decarbonization?217 5.2.3 Direction and Focus of Decarbonization?219 5.3 Construction Materials Industry?226 5.3.1 Status Quo and Trend?226 5.3.2 Target and Pathway of Decarbonization?231 5.3.3 Direction and Priorities of Decarbonization?233 5.4 Other Industries?238 5.4.1 Electrification Enhancement?238 5.4.2 Comprehensive Use of Clean Energy?240 5.4.3 Energy Conservation and Energy Efficiency Enhancement?242 5.5 Summary?245 6 Net Zero Emissions Roadmap for Transportation Sector?247 6.1 Road?248 6.1.1 Status Quo and Trend?248 6.1.2 Target and Pathway of Decarbonization?255 6.1.3 Direction and Priorities of Decarbonization?258 6.2 Shipping and Aviation?269 6.2.1 Status Quo and Trend?269 6.2.2 Target and Pathway of Decarbonization?273 6.2.3 Direction and Priorities of Decarbonization?276 6.3 Summary?279 7 Net Zero Emissions Roadmap for Building Sector?281 7.1 Status Quo and Trend?282 7.1.1 Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission?283 7.1.2 Development Trend?285 7.1.3 Development Challenges?286 7.2 Target and Pathway of Decarbonization?287 7.3 Direction and Priorities of Decarbonization?289 7.3.1 Electricity Replacement?289 7.3.2 Energy Efficiency Enhancement?293 7.4 Summary?298 8 Net Zero Emissions Roadmap for AFOLU Sector and Non-CO2 GHGs?299 8.1 Emissions and Carbon Sink Increase from AFOLU?300 8.1.1 Status Quo and Trend?300 8.1.2 Target and Pathway of Mitigation?301 8.1.3 Measures and Priorities of Mitigation?302 8.2 Emission Reduction of Non-CO2 GHGs?304 8.2.1 Status Quo and Trend?306 8.2.2 Target and Pathway of Mitigation?307 8.2.3 Measures and Priorities of Mitigation?308 8.3 Summary?311 Volume II 9 Global Electricity-Carbon Market?313 9.1 Status and Challenge of Development?314 9.2 Needs and Trends?318 9.2.1 Integrated Development Needs?318 9.2.2 Integrated Development Trends?319 9.3 Guiding Principle and Connotation?321 9.3.1 Guiding Principle?321 9.3.2 Market Connotation?321 9.4 Market Construction?323 9.4.1 Market Structure?323 9.4.2 Construction Plan?324 9.5 Development Path?336 9.5.1 Objective for 2030?336 9.5.2 Objective for 2040?338 9.5.3 Objective for 2050?340 9.6 Future Benefits?341 9.7 Summary?343 10 Key Net-Zero & Carbon-Negative Technologies?345 10.1 UHV Transmission Technology?346 10.1.1 UHV AC Transmission?347 10.1.2 UHV DC Transmission?349 10.1.3 VSC-HVDC Transmission?352 10.1.4 High Voltage Large-scale Submarine Cable?356 10.2 Clean Replacement Technologies?357 10.2.1 Photovoltaic Power Generation?357 10.2.2 Concentrating Solar Power Generation?360 10.2.3 Wind Power Generation?362 10.2.4 Hydropower Generation?365 10.2.5 Nuclear Electric Power Generation?368 10.2.6 Hydrogen Power Generation?369 10.3 Energy-Saving and Electricity Replacement Technologies?371 10.3.1 Lighting Technology?371 10.3.2 Electric Heating Technology?372 10.3.3 Electrical Metallurgy Technology?374 10.3.4 Electrified Transportation Technology?375 10.4 Massive Energy Storage Technology?377 10.4.1 Pumped Energy Storage?378 10.4.2 Novel Energy Storage?379 10.5 Hydrogen Energy and Power to Fuels & Raw Material?382 10.5.1 Power to Hydrogen?382 10.5.2 Hydrogen Storage and Transportation?383 10.5.3 Power to Fuels & Raw Material?386 10.6 Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage Technologies?388 10.6.1 Carbon Dioxide Capture, Utilization and Storage?388 10.6.2 Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage?390 10.6.3 Direct Air Capture?391 10.7 Digital Intelligence Technologies?392 10.7.1 Sensor?393 10.7.2 Communications Technologies?394 10.7.3 Big Data and AI?396 10.8 Summary?398 11 Carbon Neutrality Pathway for Asia?399 11.1 Status Quo and Trend?400 11.1.1 Economic and Social Development?400 11.1.2 Resource and Environment?403 11.1.3 Energy and Power?404 11.2 Mitigation Path?406 11.2.1 Mitigation Ideas?406 11.2.2 Mitigation Priorities?407 11.3 Energy Transition?408 11.3.1 Primary Energy?408 11.3.2 Final Energy?409 11.3.3 Power Demand?411 11.3.4 Power Supply?414 11.4 Clean Energy?416 11.4.1 Solar Power?416 11.4.2 Wind Power?420 11.4.3 Hydropower?422 11.5 Allocation Network?425 11.5.1 Development Positioning?425 11.5.2 Power Grid Interconnection?427 11.5.3 Key Interconnection Projects?430 11.6 Summary?433 12 Carbon Neutrality Pathway for Europe?435 12.1 Status Quo and Trend?436 12.1.1 Economic and Social Development?436 12.1.2 Resource and Environment?438 12.1.3 Energy and Power?440 12.2 Mitigation Path?442 12.2.1 Mitigation Ideas?442 12.2.2 Mitigation Priorities?444 12.3 Energy Transition?444 12.3.1 Primary Energy?444 12.3.2 Final Energy?446 12.3.3 Power Demand?447 12.3.4 Power Supply?450 12.4 Clean Energy?452 12.4.1 Wind Power?452 12.4.2 Hydropower?456 12.4.3 Solar Power?457 12.5 Allocation Network?459 12.5.1 Development Positioning?459 12.5.2 Power Grid Interconnection?461 12.5.3 Key Interconnection Projects?465 12.6 Summary?468 13 Carbon Neutrality Pathway for Africa?471 13.1 Status Quo and Trend?472 13.1.1 Economic and Social Development?472 13.1.2 Resource and Environment?474 13.1.3 Energy and Power?476 13.2 Mitigation Path?480 13.2.1 Mitigation Ideas?480 13.2.2 Mitigation Priorities?481 13.3 Energy Transition?482 13.3.1 Primary Energy?482 13.3.2 Final Energy?483 13.3.3 Power Demand?483 13.3.4 Power Supply?487 13.4 Clean Energy?489 13.4.1 Solar Power?489 13.4.2 Wind Power?493 13.4.3 Hydropower?495 13.5 Allocation Network?504 13.5.1 Development Positioning?504 13.5.2 Power Grid Interconnection?505 13.5.3 Key Interconnection Projects?509 13.6 Summary?514 14 Carbon Neutrality Pathway for North America?517 14.1 Status Quo and Trend?518 14.1.1 Economic and Social Development?518 14.1.2 Resource and Environment?520 14.1.3 Energy and Power?521 14.2 Mitigation Path?524 14.2.1 Mitigation Ideas?524 14.2.2 Mitigation Priorities?525 14.3 Energy Transition?526 14.3.1 Primary Energy?526 14.3.2 Final Energy?527 14.3.3 Power Demand?528 14.3.4 Power Supply?530 14.4 Clean Energy?533 14.4.1 Solar Power?533 14.4.2 Wind Power?535 14.4.3 Hydropower?538 14.5 Allocation Network?540 14.5.1 Development Positioning?540 14.5.2 Power Grid Interconnection?542 14.5.3 Key Interconnection Projects?546 14.6 Summary?548 15 Carbon Neutrality Pathway for Central and South America?551 15.1 Status Quo and Trend?552 15.1.1 Economic and Social Development?552 15.1.2 Resource and Environment?554 15.1.3 Energy and Power?556 15.2 Mitigation Path?558 15.2.1 Mitigation Ideas?558 15.2.2 Mitigation Priorities?559 15.3 Energy Transition?560 15.3.1 Primary Energy?560 15.3.2 Final Energy?561 15.3.3 Power Demand?563 15.3.4 Power Supply?565 15.4 Clean Energy?567 15.4.1 Solar Power?567 15.4.2 Wind Power?571 15.4.3 Hydropower?574 15.5 Allocation Network?579 15.5.1 Development Positioning?579 15.5.2 Power Grid Interconnection?580 15.5.3 Key Interconnection Projects?583 15.6 Summary?585 16 Carbon Neutrality Pathway for Oceania?587 16.1 Status Quo and Trend?588 16.1.1 Economic and Social Development?588 16.1.2 Resource and Environment?590 16.1.3 Energy and Power?591 16.2 Mitigation Path?594 16.2.1 Mitigation Ideas?594 16.2.2 Mitigation Priorities?595 16.3 Energy Transition?596 16.3.1 Primary Energy?596 16.3.2 Final Energy?597 16.3.3 Power Demand?598 16.3.4 Power Supply?600 16.4 Clean Energy?603 16.4.1 Solar Power?603 16.4.2 Wind Power?606 16.4.3 Hydropower?607 16.5 Allocation Network?609 16.5.1 Development Positioning?610 16.5.2 Power Grid Interconnection?611 16.5.3 Key Interconnection Projects?612 16.6 Summary?613 17 Comprehensive Benefits and Development Prospects?615 17.1 Comprehensive Benefits?617 17.1.1 Economic Benefits?617 17.1.2 Social Benefits?618 17.1.3 Environmental Benefits?619 17.2 Development Mechanisms?622 17.2.1 Clean Development Mechanism?623 17.2.2 Cooperative Governance Mechanism?624 17.2.3 Collaborative Innovation Mechanism?625 17.2.4 Financial Investment Mechanism?627 17.2.5 Legal Mechanism?628 17.3 Energy Transportation Information Networks Integration?629 17.3.1 Development Requirements?630 17.3.2 Integration Models?631 17.3.3 Main Forms?634 17.3.4 Development Path?639 17.4 Vision of the Future?641 17.4.1 Better Climate and Environment, New Chapter of Ecological Civilization?642 17.4.2 Unleashing Innovation-driven Vitality in Economic Growth?643 17.4.3 A New Phase of Social Harmony and Civilization?644 17.5 Summary?644 Appendixes?646 Appendix 1 Introduction to Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization (GEIDCO)?646 Appendix 2 GEI Carbon Neutrality Scenario?650 Appendix 3 Integrated Assessment Model for Global Climate Change?652 Appendix 4 Global Renewable Energy Assessment Model?658 Appendix 5 GEI Planning Model?666 Appendix 6 Glossary?670
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